Global geopolitical tensions have spiked since the American raid that killed a prominent Iranian general. The unrest in the Middle East just adds to other concerns surrounding global trade disputes, U.S.-China relations, South Asian border disputes, European fragmentation and decelerating economic growth, among others. [+] Read More
Global economic growth has been anemic in the expansion since the Financial Crisis. U.S. real per capita GDP has advanced at a rate of 1.5 per cent during this period, the slowest expansion rate over a decade since the 1950s. The U.S. economy has done better since Donald Trump took office, but the latest estimates are for slower growth going forward. [+] Read More
I write this outlook on the day of the federal election. While the immediate aftermath may cause some investors concern, in the long term it’s fundamentals that drive markets. Hopefully, politicians will take some concrete action to make our country a desirable destination for capital and investment. [+] Read More
Economies are the cumulative reflection of the myriad of transactions taking place every day. In order for a transaction to take place, there must be a buyer and a seller. Both parties to the transaction believe that they are receiving adequate compensation, no matter on which side of the trade they reside. In financial markets, buyers and sellers are expressing differing expectations for the object being sold. Markets have continued to rise for a long period of time, indicative of there being more optimism that economic conditions will continue to improve. [+] Read More
Trade issues continue to cloud the economic outlook as the tariffs constrain spending and companies seek alternative supply routes in their attempts to minimize the higher costs resulting from the implemetation of the tariffs. Geopolitical issues are contributing to the growing uncertainty as we face federal elections year in Canada and the US, turmoil in the UK with respect to Brexit and increasing tensions the Asia (Hong Kong) and the Middle East.
[+] Read More
MARKET OUTLOOK Global trade conflicts are beginning to impact economic outcomes in very fundamental ways. The disruption is evident in both the bond and equity markets. In the second quarter, markets reflected the fear and uncertainty investors are facing. This has been most evident in bonds, with 10-year U.S. Treasury notes repeatedly indicating expectations of … [+] Read More
Global conflicts in trade are beginning to impact economic outcomes in very fundamental ways. The disruption resulting from these trade skirmishes is evident in both the bond and equity markets. The times they are a-changin’…
In Canada, the S&P/TSX Total Return Index advanced 2.6% in the second quarter of 2019, bringing the year to date to 16.3%. The US market advanced 4.3% in the quarter as measured by the US dollar denominated S&P 500 Total Return Index. The S&P 400 MidCap Total Return Index lagged the 500 with a 3.0% return in this quarter. Markets represented by the MSCI EAFE Price Return index posted a positive 2.5% return as measured in US dollars or a 0.5% return in Canadian dollars. The Canadian dollar appreciated 2.2% to its US counterpart in Q2.
[+] Read More
Global economic growth will continue to deteriorate over the remainder of 2019 as trade conflicts are having an effect on fundamental economic events. Evidence of the impact of the disruption caused by these trade concerns can be seen in the bond market where rates are reflecting higher expectations of a slowdown and in the increasing volatility in the equity markets. [+] Read More