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Michael Sprung’s Outlook & Top Picks on BNN Bloomberg MarketCall, March 20, 2019

Markets have been surprisingly robust since the lows of late December despite signs that global economic growth has been moderating since 2017. While there have been some positive stimuli over the intravening period, the overall trend has been for successively lower estimates of GDP growth. The US markets have been buoyed by the tax reductions in 2018 that have contributed to strong earnings growth which have been used to finance share buybacks and dividend increases. Little has been spent comparatively on capital expenditures to support future operations. Wage gains and employment have also made some progress in the US. The Eurozone has been less buoyant as the Brexit fiasco continues to play out and trade wars take their toll. The German economy has slowed at a faster rate than pundits pontificated while Italy actually reported a technical recession. While the Chinese economy continues to grow at a faster pace than the other developed economies, the fact that growth has been slowing has large implications for its trading partners given the size of the economy. The ongoing trade fight with the US does not bode well for China’s economy particularly at a time when they are attempting to rein in excessive debt levels locally.
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BNN Bloomberg Market Call – Michael Sprung’s Top Picks and Outlook, January 15, 2019

2018 started with a great deal of investor optimism. Global economies were growing, US tax cuts were predicted to be a boost to earnings, interest rates were still at low levels and expectations were that international trade tensions would be reasonably resolved. What a difference a year makes!
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Michael Sprung’s Outlook & Top Stock Picks on BNN Bloomberg Market Call, December 10, 2018

Investors have been extremely skittish as indicated by the bipolar market reactions day to day. These reactions to current stimuli are typical of late cycle behaviour. After nine years of recovery since the financial crisis, the market is being challenged by some underlying inequities that have been building over this extended period. [+] Read More

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BNN Bloomberg Market Call – Michael Sprung’s Top Picks and Outlook, October 24, 2018

After nine and a half years of expansion since the financial crisis of 2008, expectations of continuing synchronized expansion have begun to diminish. While the developed economies continue to exhibit progress, those in the emerging markets have begun to falter. Countries with high debt levels are being negatively impacted as central banks tighten monetary conditions through higher interest rates. Given the availability of low rate debt, consumers and governments in the more developed countries will also begin to feel the pinch of higher rates.
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THIRD QUARTER 2018 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE – Trade Cliff Hanger

As the third quarter drew to a close, Canada had yet to come to terms with the US and Mexico on a renewed trade agreement. Investors woke up on Monday, October 1, 2018 to news that a deal had in fact been cobbled together at the last minute and that all was well in the world. [+] Read More

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Michael Sprung’s Top Stock Picks on BNN Bloomberg Market Call, August 22, 2018

Market participants are becoming more cognizant of the possible negative economic outcomes surrounding many of the political and geopolitical issues facing the world today. [+] Read More

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SECOND QUARTER 2018 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE – Trade Machinations

Trade tensions intensified in the second quarter of 2018. The US aggressively enacted more encompassing tariffs that were soon countered by their disgruntled trading partners. [+] Read More

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Michael Sprung’s Top Stock Picks on BNN Bloomberg Market Call, July 16, 2018

Until recently, markets shrugged off political and geopolitical developments. However, investors were shaken in the latter part of the second quarter as tensions intensified regarding global trade in reaction to a series of tariffs and counter tariffs that were enacted. Global stock market volatility increased as investors exited positions in June and markets lost some of the gains that had been achieved earlier. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the US is no longer going to accept what it views as asymmetrical trade and military alliances as the status quo. This state of affairs has enormous implications for the US and its trading partners. Corporate profits would be severely impacted by a prolonged trade war.
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